How Back-to-Back Tariffs Smashed the Russian Economy and Showed How Weak the World Is
When Donald Trump first said he wanted to use “reciprocal tariffs,” people on the left laughed at him and said the plan was stupid and dangerous. People who usually work for the major media said that Trump’s plan was a risky bet that would hurt the American economy. But history has shown over and over that Trump’s America-first instincts beat the globalists who were against him.
Trump’s foes didn’t understand that his plan to raise tariffs wasn’t just about the economy; it was also about giving the US more power in an unfair global system. Trump caused uncertainty in global markets that were already controlled by monopolies and policies that were against American interests by threatening and then enforcing broad tariffs. One of the worst affects that wasn’t talked about much was how badly these tariffs hurt Russia’s economy. For a long time, oil revenues and Western weakness had kept the regime in power.
Even though the taxes weren’t directly aimed at Russia, they caused oil prices around the world to drop sharply. This was a financial earthquake for a country like Russia, whose government budget depends so much on oil exports.
Oil Market Tremors: Trump’s Unintentional Economic Quake
Because global markets are linked to each other, even policy choices that seem to have little to do with each other can have effects all over the world. Trump’s tariff policies made people worry that foreign trade would slow down, which made people less sure that they would need energy in the future. When investors saw that there was risk, they sold goods like oil, which caused prices to drop.
This was a huge blow to Russia’s economy. After Russia invaded Ukraine, oil prices rose quickly, and Brent crude reached $120 a barrel. This was a short break for Moscow. At first, it looked like Putin had found a way to protect his economy from Western penalties. It was only an illusion for a short time. As Trump’s strong tariff warnings made people around the world lose faith, oil prices fell, first slowly and then quickly.
Russia’s standard oil, Urals crude, became a sign of the country’s falling economy. It used to trade for almost the same price as Brent oil, but then prices dropped sharply, and it was sometimes as much as $30 less than Brent. Russia’s support was drained of energy when Western sanctions and Trump’s tariffs were added together.
The Discount Trap: Tariffs, Sanctions, and a Drop in Sales
Russia’s economic problems got worse when it desperately tried to sell oil at lower prices. Since the West turned its back on Russia, it became more and more dependent on countries like China and India to buy its oil. But sellers knew that Russia was in a bad spot. They asked for big deals and got them.
These sales at lower prices weren’t just small annoyances; they completely changed Russia’s economy. Every $1 drop in oil prices was terrible for a country that depends on oil for a lot of its money. Analysts found that Russia lost about $2.2 billion a year in oil earnings for every $1 cut. The effects on the government were just as bad. For every dollar lost, the state lost about $700 million.
When you consider that Russian oil prices have dropped by about $30 since the tariffs were first announced and that the sanctions have made the loss even bigger, it’s hard to believe. Russia was losing more than just blood; it was losing billions.
A Budget That Is Falling Apart
Even though the economy was clearly going downhill, Russia’s government kept making budgets that were too high. The Kremlin stuck to its belief that oil prices would stay around $70 per barrel in 2023, 2024, and projected 2025. It was a dangerous myth. The real prices stayed between $50 and $60.
As a result? Budget gaps and shortfalls. It was only a matter of time before Russia’s government budget went from a surplus to a deep deficit. The country was once seen as a model of fiscal conservatism among emerging markets. What started out as a well-thought-out act turned into a mad dash to fill budget gaps. Being short on money by more than 2% of GDP in 2022 was already a bad thing. With oil prices going down, deficits are expected to grow to more than 3% by 2025.
It’s important to remember that Russia’s whole social system, from pensions to building roads and bridges, rests on steady oil revenues. If they don’t go, Putin’s carefully constructed illusion of internal stability starts to fall apart.
The Ruble in Ruins: The Death Spiral of a Currency
The left-wing media were fixated on every move of the U.S. dollar under Trump, but they didn’t pay any attention to how badly currencies like the Russian ruble were hurt. The value of the ruble fell sharply after Western penalties and the general economic chaos caused by Trump’s tariffs.
This drop in value started a vicious circle. When the ruble got weaker, the spending power of regular Russians dropped. Millions of people can’t afford to buy everyday things because import prices went up so much. At the same time, even oil earnings, which were once a reliable source of foreign currency, dropped sharply in dollar terms, making budget problems worse.
The Kremlin tried to make the fall look good by saying that Russian products would be more competitive if the ruble fell in value. But currency games won’t help when your main export, oil, is already being hurt by bans and falling prices around the world.
Oil’s Future Crash and Fears of a Recession
As the world economy struggles under the weight of inflation and too many rules put in place by Biden, fears of a recession in 2025 grow. When economies around the world go into a slump, oil costs almost always drop even more.
This would be nothing less than terrible for Russia. Its economy would go into a death spiral because prices were dropping and income was going down. Each part of a country’s strength would decrease: its military power, its impact in world politics, and the well-being of its own people.
In a strange way, Trump’s strong “America-first” policies—which Biden always tried to undo—gave the country the strategic freedom it needed to get through global recessions. Russia, on the other hand, is completely open to global shocks because its economy is rigid and only depends on exports.
Energy Dependency vs. Energy Dominance
You can’t say enough about how different Trump’s energy policy is from what’s happening in Russia. While Trump pushed for American energy independence by increasing oil and gas production, cutting government red tape, and approving important pipeline projects, Russia stuck to an old, risky energy plan.
Because of Trump, the US quickly made more oil than any other country. Lower gas costs, job growth in the energy sector, and the security benefits that come with being energy independent all helped American consumers.
Putin’s Russia, on the other hand, was stuck because of graft and inefficiency, and it was still dangerously dependent on oil exports. When prices around the world dropped, there weren’t any other businesses strong enough to absorb the shock. Trump’s tariffs showed this deadly flaw, but few in the media were brave enough to say it.
The Myth of Putin as a “Economic Genius”
For years, experts in the West praised Vladimir Putin as a great economic and strategic leader. But the fact that Russia’s economy fell apart under pressure shows that those claims aren’t true.
In the years when oil prices were high, a real economic planner would have spread out Russia’s economy. Instead, Putin wasted the chance, choosing instead to make oligarchs rich and pay for war adventures. When Trump’s taxes changed the way trade works around the world, Putin didn’t know what to say.
In a tight spot, the so-called “genius” saw his oil-based economy destroyed, his ruble fall sharply, and his global hopes quickly fade.
The deafening silence of mainstream media
The fact that the mass media didn’t talk about Russia’s economy falling apart because of Trump’s trade policies may say the most. If these effects had happened under a Democratic president, it would have been hailed as a great foreign policy move by the media.
Instead, there was dead silence about Trump’s victory. The liberal elite couldn’t give up the story that Trump was careless and incapable, even if it meant ignoring one of the most effective non-military attacks on a major U.S. enemy in recent history.
It’s yet another reason why Republicans in the US need to keep building their own media networks instead of going through the corporate-controlled press.
The real threat to the world is Biden’s weakness
Trump showed that strong leadership on trade, eergy, and national security can win in the real world, even if no one fires a shot. Unfortunately, almost every success of the Trump government has been undone by the Biden administration.
Biden has accepted the same weak-kneed globalism that has given China and Russia power for decades instead of tariffs that work both ways. Instead of making the US energy independent, Biden has slowed down production, leaving the country more open to influence by other countries.
Even though Russia has been hurt, it is still a threat, and it could get better if Biden’s plans raise oil prices again. That way, Trump’s chance to economically cripple a dangerous enemy would be lost.
In the end, Trump’s plan was always the right one
Trump’s two-way taxes did a lot more than just protect American jobs, as history will show. They changed the way trade worked around the world, showed how weak corrupt petro-states like Russia were, and boosted American power during a time when it was weakening.
Trump was not the careless idiot that his enemies said he was. Instead, he was a strategic thinker who knew that a strong economy is good for the whole country. He was very brave with his tariffs, which not only made America stronger but also hit one of the world’s most dangerous governments hard, without losing a single American life.
It’s very clear what Americans will have to do in 2024 and beyond. Go back to the power, vision, and results of policies that were in place during the Trump administration, or keep going down the path of decline that Biden set.
For the sake of our future, our freedom, and our wealth, conservatives must remember what we learned from this time and make sure that Trump’s America-first legacy lives on.
